🌐 Global Economy Aug 22, 2026 · Menzie Chinn

Waiting for the Troika Mid-Session Review Forecast

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Waiting for the Troika Mid-Session Review Forecast
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July 15 is the due date, but is often missed. So looking back in May, NEC Chair Hassett forecast 5% growth in 2027, on top of rapid 2026 growth forecasted by the Administration. How are things looking with two more quarters of reported growth?


Figure 1: Reported GDP (bold black), Administration’s FY2027 Budget forecast, aka OMB-Treasury-CEA “Troika” (red squares), WSJ April survey mean (blue), SPF median forecast (pink), Hassett 5% growth in 2027 (teal triangle), . Source: BEA, WSJ

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