The optimism of the gaps
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I've noticed a subtype of optimism bias, common in thinking about AI, where people assume things are going well in whatever areas they're not looking closely at. If you're paying attention to technical alignment, you might think "well, things aren't looking great here, but at least there are people at the labs who are on top of things and won't actually send us off a cliff." If you interact with people at the labs, you might think "well, the labs don't seem to understand the problem and are happ
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