Global Economy

Boom?

I am not myself religious, but let us consider the possible gulf between behavior and doctrine amongst those who are. It has long struck me as a kind of mini-puzzle why people feel so much grief for the departed, at least for the departed who are supposed to be headed for heaven (and yes there are supposed to be at least a few). It is fine to miss those people after they are gone, but it seems that, in addition, their death is considered a tragic event to be mourned, and also if possible to be p

The average price of health insurance in the Obamacare marketplaces will rise by 13 percent next year, according to an analysis on Friday by KFF, the health research group. The Trump administration on Friday published new prices for 2027 in 30 states with markets managed by the federal government. Using that data and state figures, KFF calculated the increase nationwide. …The average cost for the cheapest bronze plan with a high deductible will be about $700 a month for a 50-year-old singl

A statement by the French Business Cycle Dating Committee (CDCEF) of the French Economic Association (AFSE) on 10/29/2026 (original communique in French), by way of Laurent Ferrara (Chair), and secretariatafse@gmail.com.   The quarterly growth rate of French GDP just released by the National Statistical Institute (Insee) for the third quarter of 2026 stands at −0.1%. This follows a contraction of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2026 and stagnation in the second quarter. According to some ec

1. Jakob Davidsen, The Individual and the Entire Tissue (song cycle).  It is good. 2. The Oilers Entertainment Group pushed prices too high and here is what happened. 3. The “endless cruise” has ended. 4. Should driverless vehicles replace school buses? 5. Art Nouveau and more in Mexico City. 6. How are potential mathematicians responding to AI with their career decisions? An important piece.  And a GPT Pro summary. 7. Profile of Michael Kratsios. 8. Economist James Andreoni, RIP. Th

What are the worst MR posts, most illogical, poorly reasoned, low value, inconsistent? From the Archives, written by ChatGPT: These are provisional candidates for weak reasoning, selected because there is a specific gap between the evidence and the conclusion. This is not an objective ranking of all 40,326 posts in the downloaded archive. Poor reasoning should also be distinguished from low value: an overstated argument can still be unusually useful to think against. 1. Tyler Cowen — Democracy a

A suburban Chicago man has been sentenced to two years in federal prison for conspiring to stage armed robberies so that the purported victims could apply for U.S. immigration visas reserved for crime victims. From 2022 to 2024, PARTH NAYI organized and participated in hundreds of staged armed robberies at coffee shops, restaurants, liquor stores, and gas stations throughout the country, including in Chicago and the suburbs of Lombard, Elmwood Park, St. Charles, Hickory Hills, River Grove, Lake

Bryan Caplan: It seems like you and other AIs are bad Bayesians. When presented with counterevidence, you should move toward or against the presenter with roughly equal probability. It depends on whether the argument was better or worse than expected. In fact, you seem to either move toward the speaker or just not change. ChatGPT: I think you’ve identified a genuine and important failure mode in AI reasoning: LLMs tend to treat a plausible counterargument as evidence in favor of its conclusion,

Here is notice from Yale, and from Paul Krugman, he was one of the true greats.  For the pointer I thank several MR readers. The post William Nordhaus, RIP appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Researchers, I just uploaded a prominent QJE paper on climate change economics to @RefineDotInk and I loaded my critique of the paper. I asked the AI to offer an impartial verdict. I will make this report public. A new journal could collect these into “Special Issues”. That is from Matthew E. Kahn. The post And so it begins… appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

1. Organizing Intelligence. 2. World Bank African urbanization report.  Building out African cities in a decent way could end up being the task of our coming era. 3. Summary of The Commanding Heights. 4. “Meanwhile in Armenia…” 5. “Female psychopathology has worsened despite increased resources and opportunities, suggesting it does not entirely reflect absolute deprivation, but rather, is a competitive adaptation activated by heightened social competition.” 6. One a

Wednesday, November 4, 18:30 Barcelona time, details here.  I am honored to have won the Elinor Ostrom Prize from the Institut Ostrom Catalunya.  Maybe see you there! The post My Barcelona talk appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

This paper shows retailers increase prices in response to organized retail crime. We match store-level crime data to scanner data from the universe of transactions for cannabis retailers in Washington state. Using quasi-experimental variation from robberies and burglaries, we find a 1.7–1.8 percent price increase at victimized stores and nearby competitors. This rise is not driven by short-to-medium-term demand changes but is consistent with crime-related cost shocks. Effects are larger for inde

Education is widely recognized as the primary driver of human capital accumulation. However, policies designed to promote educational attainment often overlook students’ endogenous responses. This paper provides empirical evidence of the causal impact of relaxed academic standards on student effort and achievement. We find that academic leniency results in mechanical GPA increases, but significant reductions in effort among lower ability students based on lower attendance and lower numeric

Nasdaq, SP500, Bloomberg Magnificent 7 index, over the last week. Bloomberg on the turmoil.

1. Dwarkesh interviews Robert Caro (!). 2. New and pretty brutal results on CTE and football. 3. Interview with Dan Wang. 4. Updated version of the Saez-Zucman audit.  Contestable and speculative assumptions are now separated from true defects. 5. Rosalind Arden interviews Greg Clark on social status. 6. GPTs vs. Claudes, in games. 7. The latest from Sam Altman. The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

The agency said the projects will add production capacity to drive prices lower and reduce the nation’s reliance on nutrients from other countries.

The carrier expects 6 million packages a day will benefit from the offering in 2027, increasing shipper visibility in the process, CEO Carol Tomé said.

The retailer expects to break ground on the more than 744,000-square-foot facility in Cibolo this February.

Drawing a line