Econbrowser

NFP up, but household survey series down. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars),  all log normalized to 2025M01=0. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2026Q1 Advance release, S&P Global Market Insights (ne

Preliminary May results out: Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Orange dashed line at “Liberation Day”, red dashed line at US-Iran War. Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, and author’s calculations.   Interestingly, sentiment was down for both Republicans and Independents, while Democrats moved sideways. Figure 2: U.Michigan Economic

Odds for Hormuz reopening by July 1 up and then down relative to 24 hours ago; Brent went down and then back up.

From Bloomberg: President Donald Trump’s 10% global tariffs were declared unlawful by a federal trade court in a fresh blow to the administration’s economic agenda, several months after the US Supreme Court vacated earlier levies he’d imposed. A divided three-judge panel at the US Court of International Trade in Manhattan on Thursday granted a request by a group of small businesses and two dozen mostly Democrat-led states to vacate the tariffs. Trump imposed the 10% duties in February under Sect

From Purdue/CME Ag Econ Barometer: Figure 1: Ag Econ Barometer index (blue, left scale), Consumer Confidence (brown, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Ag Econ Barometer Oct 2015-Mar 2016 = 100. Source: Purdue/CME, Conference Board, NBER. The trade war has gone on in earnest for over a year — since “Liberation Day”, and now two months of military hostilities with Iran. Despite the well-publicized hits to farm net income caused by the trade

Assuming April value persists into May and June. Figure 1: WTI Net Oil Price, using previous 3 years (blue). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: EIA via FRED, and author’s calculations. The three year version is due to Hamilton (J.Econometrics, 2003). See Jim’s recent review of oil prices and macroeconomy in the New Palgrave of Economics here. The association between recession and NOP is unclear, or not as clear as the pre-2010 period. On the other hand, the

Nominal and real exports are down. Figure 1: Wisconsin goods exports, mn $/mo (blue), in mn 2000$/mo (red), seasonally adjusted by author using X-13. Wisconsin exports deflated by US export price index. Light orange shading denotes Trump 2.0 administration. Source: Census, BLS, and author’s calculations.  Manufacturing employment continues to decline, contra Mr. Trump’s promise that tariffs would rescue manufacturing employment. Figure 2: Wisconsin manufacturing employment, 000&#8

From EIA today. Look not only at gasoline, but also diesel Unexpected? The link from oil price to gasoline and derivatives is one of the more robust in economics.   So… remember, each dollar increase in gasoline price above $3.98 is almost 100% attributable to Mr. Trump.    

From USNI:

Output is still rising smartly according to one index (2.1% m/m annualized): Figure 1: GDP (blue bars), SPGMI monthly GDP (red), Brave-Butters-Kelley index (blue), Coincident Index (green), all in logs 2024M01=0. Source: BEA 2026Q1 advance, SPGMI; Kelley School, annd Philadelphia Fed via FRED, and author’s calculations.   

Preliminary GDP rose 2% SAAR after 0.5% in Q4. Final sales to private domestic purchasers — aka “core GDP” — grew 2.5% vs. 1.8% previous. In general, since the pandemic, core GDP has been less volatile than GDP. Figure 1: GDP growth SAAR (blue), final sales to private domestic purchasers (red), both q/q annualized. Q2 observations are GDPNow estimates as of 5/1. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations. A statistical assessment indicates that 2000-2019,

Gallup and U.Michigan way down, Conference Board trending sideways. Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day” Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, NBER, and author’s calculations. In order to summarize the movements, I calculate the first principal componen

GDP grows 2% SAAR in the Q1 advance release (see Jim’s discussion here). Real personal income ex-transfers is flat. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars),  all log normalized to 2025M01=0. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS,

The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2% annual rate in the first quarter. That is below the historical average growth of 3.1% and also below some analysts’ expectations for the Q1 numbers. The new BEA report also revised down the estimate of the Q4 annual growth rate. The latter was originally reported to have been 1.4% but is now estimated to have only been 0.5%. Quarterly real GDP growth at an annual rate, 1947:Q2-2026:Q1, wit

As of 2pm CT today:   The July 1 probability hasn’t been this low since April 7th, when June Brent was about $111. It’s now about $118.      

Gas at all time high, according to Gasbuddy, as of today:

From data 10 min ago: Figure 1: Brent, NYMEX June Futures, $/bbl (black, left log scale), probability of Hormuz remains closed as of July 1 (red, right scale). 4/27 observation at 9:30am CT. Source: barchart.com, kalshi.com, author’s calculations.

My guess, using Kalshi and EPU, is for $111 yesterday (assuming EPU is the same as yesterday): Figure 1: Brent NYMEX June futures (bold black), fitted (red), forecast (green), all in $/bbl. 

Tue, Apr 28, 2026,  7:30pm, at the Leonard Nimoy Thalia,   Composer Laura Schwendinger and librettist Ginger Strand’s opera about Margaret Fuller, a 19th century American journalist and women’s rights advocate, receives its world premiere in a semi-staged production. “Margaret in Love and War” features Marnie Breckenridge in the titular role directed by Chris Alden and a chamber ensemble led by conductor Eiki Isomura. In 1847, Fuller arrives in Italy at the heart of a revolutio

One year ahead inflation expectations down 10 bps, sentiment up 2 points: Figure 1: One year ahead [median] CPI inflation expectations from U.Mich. Survey of Consumers (blue), [median] from NY Fed (red), [mean] from Cleveland Fed Survey of Firms Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) (teal +), Cleveland Fed model based (light brown), [median] from Survey of Professional Forecasters (sky blue square), all in %. Source: U.Mich via FRED, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed [1], [2], Philadelphia Fed. Figure 1: U.Mich