Econbrowser

Preliminary benchmark revision based on QCEW data, released today: Figure 1: Change in manufacturing employment since 2025M01 from BLS (blue), preliminary benchmark revision from BLS (light blue square), from ADP (green). Orange shading denotes post-Liberation Day period. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, BLS, and author’s calculations. Here’s the picture for private nonfarm payroll employment: Figure 2: Change in private nonfarm payroll employment since 2025M01 from BLS (blue), Bloomber

From NIPA accounts: Figure 1: Petroleum and petroleum product exports (blue), imports (red), both in bn.$, SAAR. Source: BEA. For the balance in physical units of crude oil, here’s data from EIA: Source: EIA. Note EIA has data through May. Memo to Bruce Hall: For Pete’s sake, figure out how to use FRED and EIA databases.

From Census via ITA: Figure 1: US exports of oil and gas to Canada (blue), US imports of oil and gas from Canada (red), mn.$. Source: Census via ITA.

Goods trade deficit larger than before the election. So much for tariffs reducing goods imports relative to pre tariff. Figure 1: Goods trade balance, BoP basis (black), Census basis (red), Bloomberg consensus (blue +), all in mn.$ s.a. Source: BEA via FRED, Census, and author’s calculations. Goods imports are rising. Figure 2: Goods imports (black),  BoP basis through April, Census basis thereafter, all in mn.$ s.a. Source: BEA via FRED, Census, and author’s calculations. Census

Canada! Source: Oilsandsmagazine.com. In fact, in 2025, 61% of total US petroleum imports come from Canada (by dollar value). According to ITA, 100% of Wisconsin imports come from Canada. Several states (including Wisconsin) get electricity from Canada. Maine gets about 30% from Canada. *  Full disclosure: I drive an internal combustion engine vehicle.

Core GDP, final sales ex net exports and government, was revised upward from 3.9% to 4.2%, even if headline GDP growth was not noticeably revised up. That means domestic aggregate demand momentum remains in place. Figure 1: Final sales to private domestic purchasers, 2nd release (bold black), advance release (gray), GDPNow (light blue square), and August Survey of Professional Forecasters median (blue), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. SPF calculated as simple sum of rea consumption and investment.  S

Nominal consumption beats expectations ( +0.2% m/m vs +0.1% Bbg consensus), but real personal income ex-transfers remains below recent peak. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), GDPNow nowcast of 7/10 (light blue box),

Today we present a guest post written by Matías Scaglione and Romina Soria of Motio Research, an independent research firm focused on measuring and analyzing U.S. household income.  Household income is central to economic well-being, but it is largely absent from the set of indicators used to monitor the U.S. economy at monthly frequency. Official household-income estimates are annual and published with a substantial lag. At Motio Research, we have been publishing monthly estimates of U.S. hou

From the EIA:

The US is going to expand the trade war against a whole slew of countries, using Section 301 charging “structural excess capacity”, caused by government intervention. China is up on the block, according Bloomberg: The US is set to impose a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods over allegations of excess manufacturing capacity before a planned summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump next month, according to people familiar with the matter. The move would restore Trump’s second-term duties

Conference Board indicator registers decline relative to downwardly revised July confidence: Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, and author’s calculations. While  perceptions of current conditions improved, expectations declined and remain mired at low levels.

Is the real interest rate set by the demand vs. supply of all savings, private and public? Or is it set by the demand for money vs. bonds emanating from liquidity preference and (outside) wealth demand? Got to answer this in anticipation of teaching this Fall semester. Usually, I use fthe latter in my classes, to illustrate portfolio crowding out arising from government budget deficits. Here’s an example of how I explain it, couched in IS-LM. The loanable funds picture of increasing dema

As we lumber into an expanded trade war with Canada: Source: Census via ITA, and author’s calculations. To date (1pm CT), gubernatorial candidate Tom Tiffany has not made a comment on the original Section 338 tariffs to be levied against Canada, nor this mornings threat to increase tariff rates on automobiles.

Who could’a thunk it? From Bloomberg: US President Donald Trump pledged to double the auto tariff on Canadian vehicles and parts starting next year, escalating the spiraling trade fight between the two economies. Trump posted on Monday that “Tariffs on all Cars, Trucks, both large and small, Automotive Parts, and Steel” would rise to 50%, effective Jan. 1. The current auto rate is 25% but is applied only to non-US content. Imported steel already faces a 50% charge. The currently announced

Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes).    Our paper, written with William Ginn and Evangelos Salachas, “Stock Price Bubbles, Inflation and Monetary Policy Surprises,” asks when monetary tightening restrains speculative equity valuations—and when it does not. A contractionary monetary-policy surprise is normally expected to raise required returns, tighten credit conditions, weaken risk-taking, and reduce the present value

From the official website, the statement on trade policy: “[…] “ On related topics: Lower Costs for Every Wisconsinite Alongside President Trump, Tom delivered the largest tax cut in history for working families, seniors, and small businesses. He ended taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security. He expanded affordable childcare, opened more pathways to trade schools, and created real opportunities for workers to get ahead. But under Democrat leadership in Madison, Wisconsin

Anybody familiar with the gravity model of trade would be unsurprised that Wisconsin (exports) a lot to Canada. Figure 1: Wisconsin goods exports to world (black, right scale), Canada (blue, left scale), Mexico (red scale), mn.2017$. Nominal data deflated by BEA deflator. Light orange shading denotes Trump administrations. Source: Census via ITA, BEA via FRED, and author’s calculations. Notice Wisconsin exports tend to go down during “orange” periods. Anyway, Wisconsin awaits

July 15 is the due date, but is often missed. So looking back in May, NEC Chair Hassett forecast 5% growth in 2027, on top of rapid 2026 growth forecasted by the Administration. How are things looking with two more quarters of reported growth? Figure 1: Reported GDP (bold black), Administration’s FY2027 Budget forecast, aka OMB-Treasury-CEA “Troika” (red squares), WSJ April survey mean (blue), SPF median forecast (pink), Hassett 5% growth in 2027 (teal triangle), . Source: BEA, WSJ

SPGMI’s estimate as of 8/3: Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), NY Fed nowcast of 8/21 (light blue box), all log normalized to 2025M01=0. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2026Q1 advance release, S&

Industrial production below consensus (+0.2% m/m vs. +0.3% Bloomberg), manufacturing at consensus, although previous month’s revised up. Output measures continue to outpace employment. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blu